This year, Europe is emerging from the deepest recession in a generation. But this has not been a normal recession. The number of insolvencies has come down over the last year, and non-performing loans (NPLs) are close to a historic low. Numerous government support measures, such as tax rebates, furlough schemes, moratoria and the suspension of insolvency proceedings were highly effective in temporarily bridging enterprises’ liquidity shortfalls.
However, most of these support measures have come to an end, and many firms’ liquidity buffers are depleted. Meanwhile, a range of sectors will need to confront a fundamental reshaping of their business models. The European Systemic Risk Board, tasked with the big financial stability issues in Europe, speaks of a coming tsunami of insolvencies.
In developing countries, the COVID-19 crisis will be more protracted, and a full recovery is less certain. Many mid-sized companies entered the crisis with significant leverage levels, and the more numerous microenterprises are poorly